Tokyo Workshop on International and Development Economics (TWID) 2023
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※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます（Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH）。
Zoomを利用したハイブリッド開催について （Online Seminars In Person and Using Zoom)
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当面の間、本ワークショップはハイブリッド形式（対面とオンライン）で開催されます。 以下の注意事項を必ずご確認のうえご準備をお願いいたします。 Zoom URL、ID、パスコードはセミナーにより異なります。セミナー毎にご登録ください。TWID is held online for the time being. Please read the following instruction for participation. Zoom URL, ID and Passcode are diferent depending on the seminar. Please meke sure to register for each seminar.
※ 登録 (Registration) 事前登録が必須となります。 下記よりご登録頂けますと、 ミーティングURLがemailで送付されます。 事前に、ご利用の端末にZoomアプリケーションのインストールをお済ませください。 （Zoomアカウントをお持ちの方は、emailにあるID, パスワードを使ってサインインして頂くことも可能です。） Registration is required to join a seminar. Please register in advance at the following website so that detailed information containing meeting URL will be provided via email. Please make sure to install ZOOM Cloud Meetings (application)on your computer or cell phone in advance. (If you have a Zoom account, sign-up using ID and password included in the email is also available.) 参加までの手順は下記より事前にご確認ください。 For more details, please see the following website.
※ 注意 (Note) 1) 参加者名には、ご自分の氏名をお使い下さい。 Please register your full name when you participate. 2) ご自身の音声は、質疑応答時を除き、OFFにしてください。 Please mute your microphone during a speaker's talk except for Q&A session. 音声OFFの手順 (Muting Participants in Zoom)
Coordinators Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Economics) Aya Suzuki (Department of International Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences) Yoshito Takasaki (Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Public Policy) Kenichi Ueda (Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Public Policy)
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| 日時 | April 4（Thursday） 10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、Zoomを利用してのオンライン開催となります。オンラインでは（事前登録制）となります。詳細はMacroeconomics Workshopウェブサイトの説明をご確認ください。 Registration |
| 報告 |
David Dorn (University of Zurich) TBA |
| Abstract | |
| Host | Taiji Furusawa |
| Organizer |
Co-organized by:
・Institute for Future Initiatives（未来ビジョン研究センター）
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| 日時 | Special lecture and seminar by Professor Myoung-jae Lee February 27, 2024（火 Tuesday）13:00-14:45 |
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。
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| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。
TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 |
Myoung-Jae Lee (Korea University) 13:00-13:45 "Staggered Adoption DD" 13:45-14:00 Coffee break 14:00-14:45 "Direct, Indirect and Interaction Effects Based on Mediator Principal Stratification" |
| Co-Host |
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| Organizer | Yasuyuki Sawada |
＜ 次年度予定 ＞
| 日時 | April 24, 2024（水 Wednesay）10:30-12:00 |
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。
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| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。
TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 |
Joris Muller (National University of Singapore) TBA |
| Co-Host |
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| Organizer | Yasuyuki Sawada |
以下本年度終了分
| Date | International Conference JADE/CEPR/TIME/CIRJE Development Economics Conference April 1 (Saturday) - April 2 (Sunday) |
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| Venue | Sanjō Conference Hall, The University of Tokyo, 7 Chome-3-1 Hongo [Map] * Number 2 on the map. |
Registration |
Please click Here. (Pre-registration is required.) |
| Program |
| 日時 | May 2, 2023（火 Tuesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | Zoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は下記ウェブサイトの説明をご確認のうえご登録ください。 Registration |
| 報告 | Yanjun Li(Hitotsubashi University) "Road to Crime: Expressway Connections and Child Trafficking" [Paper] |
| Abstract | Child trafficking is a long-lasting social issue in China. We argue that abducted children increase as an indirect and unintended consequence of improved urban infrastructure, such as the construction of expressways that facilitate the expedient transfer of victims between cities. To identify the causal relationship, we combine family-reported incidents of child abduction with geo-referenced data of China’s highway routes to explore the impact of expressways on connected cities in comparison to unconnected cities using a difference-in-differences approach and city-pair matching strategy. The results support our assumptions and are robust after addressing the concerns regarding the endogeneity of route placement and staggered treatment timing. The expanded demand side of the trafficking market and enhanced rural-urban migration, which increases the public safety risks, could account for the mechanism behind the phenomena. |
| Host | |
| Organizer | Masahiro Shoji |
| 日時 | May 23, 2023（火 Tuesday）10:25-12:10 ※オンライン開催に変更されました
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、Zoomを利用してのオンライン開催となります。オンラインでは（事前登録制）となります。詳細はMicroeconomics Workshopウェブサイトの説明をご確認ください。 Registration |
| 報告 | Izumi Yokoyama (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract | This study estimates the impact of Japan's anti-COVID-19 policy called “the state of emergency” (SOE) by employing a geographical regression discontinuity design (RDD). This policy can be considered a weaker alternative to a lockdown, where people are permitted to move outside certain targeted areas; in this sense, the areas are “unlocked” with several restrictions in place. In February 2021, an SOE was declared for 11 out of the 47 prefectures in Japan. This enabled us to utilize the geographical RDD for the study. We utilized the fact that the risk of infection and other factors were geographically continuous at the borders between targeted areas and non-targeted areas, while the SOE was completely discontinuous at each border. We obtained the following results. Those who lived “barely” outside the emergency areas were more alarmed by COVID-19 than those who lived “barely” inside the targeted areas. This contributed to behaviors such as refraining from going to bars or restaurants and to becoming more careful in practicing COVID-19 countermeasures. Our study is the first of its kind to find negative effects for targeted areas and positive effects for untargeted areas simultaneously, which was made possible by using the geographical RDD. Thus, the results of this paper suggest the importance of reconsidering the necessity of disease control that utilizes the borders between administrative divisions, such as states or prefectures, in implementing lockdowns. |
| Host | |
| Organizer | Masahiro Shoji |
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| 報告 |
Seminar Cancelled / 以下のセミナーは中止となりました。
William Lincoln (Claremont McKenna College) |
| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | June 14, 2023（水 Wednesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。
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| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。
TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Cheng Chen (Clemson University) Population Growth and Employment Protection (written with Takahiro Hattori) |
| Abstract | Almost all major economies have been experiencing substantial declines in population growth in recent decades. At the same time, employment protection is a central phenomenon of the labor market in many economies. We set up a firm dynamics model with firm entry/exit to study the impact of the firing cost on aggregate productivity through the lens of population growth. The key finding is that the negative impact of imposing the firing cost on output and aggregate productivity is larger, when the (working-age) population growth rate declines. A lower (working-age) population growth rate leads to fewer entrants and exiting firms which barely pay the firing cost and makes more (surviving) firm suffer from the firing cost. Using Japanese plant-level data, we calibrate our model and find a quantitatively sizable impact of a decline in population growth on the negative output effect of imposing the firing cost. Using prefecture-level data from Japan, we provide evidence that the plant-level entry rate is lower in Japanese prefectures where the (working-age) population growth is lower. |
| Co-Host |
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| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | June 21, 2023（水 Wednesday）14:55-16:40
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。 Registration (Click here and register on the website.) |
| 報告 |
Se-jik Kim (Seoul National University) Theory of supply chains: a working capital approach (joint work with Hyun Song Shin) |
| Abstract | This paper presents a "time-to-build" theory of supply chains which implies a key role for the financing of working capital as a determinant of supply chain length. We apply our theory to offshoring and trade, where firms strike a balance between the productivity gain due to offshoring against the greater financial cost due to longer supply chains. In equilibrium, the ratio of trade to GDP, inventories and productivity are procyclical and closely track financial conditions. |
| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | July 4, 2023（火 Tuesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | Zoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は下記ウェブサイトの説明をご確認のうえご登録ください。 Registration |
| 報告 | Midori Wakabayashi(Tohoku University) "Stuck in a Marriage: The Impact of Income Shocks on Divorce and Intra-Household Allocation" Wataru Kureishi Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz Deutsche Bundesbank, Hitoshi Tsujiyama University of Surrey, Midori Wakabayashi Tohoku University |
| Abstract | We exploit a natural-experimental earthquake shock to study the effects of adverse economic conditions on marital dissolution and intra-household reallocation. Using large-scale long-term panel data, we document that couples more affected by the adverse shock are less likely to divorce in both the short and long run. This bundling effect is particularly strong for dual-earner couples with a young child whose wives tend to experience a drop in their earnings due to the disaster, compared to singleearner couples with a young child or couples with no child or a grown-up child.<br> Building on the collective household model with limited commitment, we argue that these results can be theoretically explained by a significant decrease in the value of the outside option (divorce) for women with income loss, implying that they are stuck in the marriage for economic reasons. The model also predicts an intra-household reallocation of resources from wives to husbands within these otherwise divorced families.<br> We then provide novel empirical evidence for this reallocation: husbands make up for the income loss by moving into higher-paying jobs, compensated by longer leisure time, shorter time for home production, and higher private consumption. |
| Host | |
| Organizer | Masahiro Shoji |
| 日時 | July 26, 2023（水 Wednesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。 Registration 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。 TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 |
Hisaki Kono (Kyoto University) At the Right Time: Eliminating Mismatch between Cash Flow and Credit Flow in Microcredit
(with Abu Shonchoy & Kazushi Takahashi) |
| Abstract | Despite the expansion of microcredit access, its outreach is still limited among farmers. One potential cause is a timing mismatch between cash flow and credit flow. Farmers have little income until their harvest is realized, while standard microcredit requires weekly installment payments. This mismatch causes underinvestment and borrowing for repayment, resulting in lower uptake rates. Furthermore, agricultural investment is sequential, while credit is disbursed as a lump sum. Present-biased (PB) farmers may fail to set aside sufficient money for later investment. To test these predictions, we conducted a randomized control trial modifying standard microcredit targeted at tenant farmers by setting repayment schedules to one-time repayment after harvest and making loan disbursement sequential. Discarding weekly repayment increased uptake and borrower’s satisfaction without worsening repayment rates. Sequential disbursement increased later investments among PB borrowers and reduced loan sizes. We attribute the loan size reduction to the option value: Sequential disbursement allowed borrowers to adjust the total loan size after observing credit demand shocks, eliminating the need for precautionary borrowing. Calibrated models are used to evaluate counterfactual credit designs, showing that letting borrowers set the credit limit is beneficial for PB borrowers, while credit lines will be suboptimal for PB borrowers. |
| Organizer | Aya Suzuki |
| Date | The 4th TWID International Finance Conference August 9 (Wednesday) - August 10 (Thursday) |
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| Venue | 東京大学経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）
１階 第1セミナー室 [Map] |
Registration |
Please click Here. Pre-registration is required (The Zoom URL is different than usual. Please refer to the CARF website for details.) |
| Program | |
| Host |
| Date | October 4 (Wednesday) 10:30-11:45 *Irregular Schedule |
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| Venue | 東京大学経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）
１階 第1セミナー室 [Map] |
| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。
TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| Speaker | Silvia Castro (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat (LMU)) Gendered Access to Finance: The Role of Team Formation, Idea Quality, and Implementation Constraints in Business Evaluations (joint with Vojtech Bartos1, Kristina Czura and Timm Opitz |
| Abstract | High-potential entrepreneurship is severely dominated by male entrepreneurs, as is their access to external finance – a crucial prerequisite for turning a start-up into a successful business. We analyze gender discrimination in entrepreneurship finance and structurally unpack whether loan officers evaluate business ideas and the ability to successfully implement those ideas differently for male and female entrepreneurs, both as individual entrepreneurs or in entrepreneurial teams. In a lab-in-the-field experiment in Uganda, loan officers of a large bank providing entrepreneurship finance evaluate real-life business pitches for which we exogenously vary the team size and the gender of the entrepreneurs. We find evidence for gender discrimination of individual female entrepreneurs, but no gender bias in the evaluation of entrepreneurial teams, neither for the business idea nor the implementation capability. Our results suggest that gender discrimination does not explain the observed disparities in access to finance for high-potential entrepreneurs, and they point to the importance of the team composition of start-up enterprises. |
| 日時 | December 6（水 Wednesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。 Registration 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。 TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Wanglin Ma (Lincoln University) Agricultural Mechanization and Non-farm Employment of Rural Women |
| Abstract | This study analyzes the impact of the adoption of agricultural mechanization and its intensity on the non-farm employment of rural women using the 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey data. The study captures mechanization adoption as a dichotomous
decision and adoption intensity using three types of farming strategies: non-mechanized, semi-mechanized, and fully-mechanized. Non-farm work is categorized based on work types (self-employment or wage employment) and work locations (local or migrated non-farm work). Both inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimator and multivalued treatment effects (MVTE) model are utilized to address selection bias. The
IPWRA estimates reveal that mechanization adoption increases the probability of rural women participating in non-farm work in general and wage employment and local and
migrated non-farm work in particular. The impact is greater for unmarried women than for their married counterparts. The MVTE estimates show that relative to non-mechanized
farming, the adoption of semi-or fully-mechanized farming increases the probability of rural women participating in non-farm work, wage employment, and local and migrated non-farm
work, with fully-mechanized farming playing a larger role. Meanwhile, relative to semi-mechanized farming, adopting fully-mechanized farming does not have a significant impact on any type of non-farm work. |
| Organizer | Aya Suzuki |
| 日時 | December 12, 2023（火 Tuesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は下記の説明をご確認のうえご登録ください。 Microeconomics Workshop Zoom URL is used for this seminar. Registration |
| 報告 | Teresa Molina (University of Hawaii at Manoa) "An Examination of Intergenerational Mobility in the Philippines" (Teresa Molina and Cara Tan) |
| Abstract | Anti-poverty programs, including conditional cash transfers (CCTs), are widely viewed as effective tools for increasing intergenerational mobility. However, direct empirical tests of this hypothesis are hard to find, and little attention has been paid to the magnitude of any potential effects. In this paper, we calculate various measures of intergenerational education mobility in the Philippines at the municipality level. This allows us to estimate the effects of a national CCT program on both absolute upward mobility and relative mobility. We find that the program increased educational attainment and absolute upward mobility, but had no effect on relative mobility. |
| Co-Host | Microeconomics Workshop |
| Organizer | Masahiro Shoji |
| 日時 | June 14, 2023（水 Wednesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。
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| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。
TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Cheng Chen (Clemson University) Population Growth and Employment Protection (written with Takahiro Hattori) |
| Abstract | Almost all major economies have been experiencing substantial declines in population growth in recent decades. At the same time, employment protection is a central phenomenon of the labor market in many economies. We set up a firm dynamics model with firm entry/exit to study the impact of the firing cost on aggregate productivity through the lens of population growth. The key finding is that the negative impact of imposing the firing cost on output and aggregate productivity is larger, when the (working-age) population growth rate declines. A lower (working-age) population growth rate leads to fewer entrants and exiting firms which barely pay the firing cost and makes more (surviving) firm suffer from the firing cost. Using Japanese plant-level data, we calibrate our model and find a quantitatively sizable impact of a decline in population growth on the negative output effect of imposing the firing cost. Using prefecture-level data from Japan, we provide evidence that the plant-level entry rate is lower in Japanese prefectures where the (working-age) population growth is lower. |
| Co-Host |
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| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | December 20（水 Wednesday）10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上部の説明をご確認ください。 Registration 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。 TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Alireza Jay Naghavi (University of Bologna, 大阪大学 (Osaka University)) TBA |
| Abstract | |
| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | January 19（金 Friday）15:30-17:00
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| 場所 | Hybrid Seminar Registration Please register at the website below for online participation. TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Sungju Wu (Duke University) Foreign Profit Shifting and The Welfare Responses to The US–China Trade War: Evidence from Manufacturers in Vietnam [Paper] |
| Abstract | This paper studies the welfare implications of the US–China trade war in Vietnam when foreign-owned manufacturers repatriate their profits. Utilizing an enterprise survey in Vietnam, I provide novel evidence that Vietnam’s positive responses in input sourcing, product export, and employment in 2017–2019 are driven mainly by foreign-owned manufacturers, especially Chinese manufacturers. To further understand the welfare gains of the trade war episode, I develop and estimate a quantitative model of trade participation with foreign ownership, where foreign-owned manufacturers do not retain their profits in the host country. A foreign demand shock to Vietnam of a magnitude similar to that of the trade war raises the real expenditure in the model by 5 percent, predominantly from an increase in labor income. |
| Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
| 日時 | February 1（木 Thursday）10:30-12:00
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| 場所 | Hybrid Seminar Registration Please register at the website below for online participation. TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Jaeeun Seo (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Sectoral Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: A Sufficient Statistics Approach (joint work with Ryungha Oh) [Paper] |
| Abstract | |
| Organizer | Co-host : Macoreconomics Workshop |
| 日時 | February 2（金 Friday）10:30-12:00
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| 場所 | Hybrid Seminar Registration Please register at the website below for online participation. TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | Jose Ramon Moran (The University of Michigan) Rules of Origin and the Use of NAFTA (joint with Alfonso Cebreros) [Paper] |
| Abstract | We study how Rules of Origin (RoO) affect the use of NAFTA. Firms exporting using NAFTA have to comply with RoO to enjoy preferential tariff treatment. We document that: (i) the smallest and largest firms use NAFTA less intensively than medium-sized firms, and (ii) the decrease in input sourcing from non-NAFTA countries when using
NAFTA to export is increasing in firm size. We rationalize these empirical findings by including fixed costs of using NAFTA and of sourcing from foreign countries in a model of global input sourcing, where the opportunity cost of complying with RoO when using NAFTA increases with firm size. We quantify our model using data on Mexican firms, RoO, and tariffs. We conduct counterfactuals that suggest a 25% increase in the strictness of RoO or a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports would result in 0.72% and 13.65% lower US exports of intermediates to Mexico, respectively. On the contrary, we quantify that removing RoO would increase these exports by 2.98%. |
| Organizer | Co-host : Macoreconomics Workshop |
| 日時 | February 14, 2024（水 Wednesday）10:30-12:00
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| 場所 | 本ワークショップは、対面とZoomを利用してのオンラインでの、ハイブリッド開催となります。オンラインでは(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト下部の説明をご確認ください。 |
| Registration | 以下の、当ワークショップ（TWID）用Zoom URLよりご登録ください。 TWID Zoom Registration URL: |
| 報告 | John Gibson (University of Waikato "Luminosity and Local Economic Growth" (joint with Bonggeun Kim and Chao Li) |
| Abstract | We examine relationships between luminosity and local economic growth for counties in China and the US and districts in Indonesia. Many authors estimate treatment effects on local luminosity growth and transfer GDP-luminosity elasticities from elsewhere to calculate economic growth effects. Our insight is that these GDP-luminosity elasticities vary especially by spatial scale and metropolitan status, but also by period, country, and remote sensing source. Measurement errors in popular DMSP data attenuate the GDP-luminosity elasticities but the sensitivity to spatial aggregation persists even when using instrumental variables estimation. Consequently, claimed growth effects of various treatments may be quite inaccurate. |
| Co-Host | |
| Organizer | Yasuyuki Sawada |
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