ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ 2019
Empirical Micro Research Seminar 2019
- ※ 2021年2月17日
- ※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。
以下本年度終了分
日時 | ※本ワークショップは開催中止となりました。 The seminar has been cancelled.
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Gautam Gowrisankaran (Arizona State University) |
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Organizer | Naoki Wakamori |
日時 | ※本ワークショップは開催中止となりました。 The seminar has been cancelled. March 30, 2020 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Jonathan Guryan (Northwestern University) |
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Abstract | |
Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
日時 | April 15, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Giulio Zanella (University of Adelaide and University of Bologna) "Prison Work and Recidivism" [Slides] |
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Abstract | Does employing inmates in prison jobs reduce reincarceration? I investigate this question applying quasi-experimental and structural methods to administrative data on the universe of convicts released from Italian prisons between 2009 and 2012.I find that a standard deviation increase in average annual hours spent in a paid, unskilled prison job (200 hours per year) reduces the reincarceration rate by about 10 percentage points one year of release. This effect persists after three years of release, implying a rate of return on government funds allocated to prison work programs of more than 20%. Structural estimation of a model formalizing the institutional context under investigation and the convict's problem upon release reproduces the quasi-experimental finding and indicates that the "training effect" of prison work (slower depreciation of an inmate's earnings potential during imprisonment) accounts for most of the drop in the reincarceration rate. |
Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
日時 | April 16, 2019 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Andrea Weber (Central European University) "Female Leadership and Gender Gap within Firms: Evidence from an Italian Board Reform (joint with Agata Maida)" [paper] |
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Abstract | Over the last decade, several countries have followed the Norwegian example and introduced laws mandating gender quota for corporate board membership. The main aim of these laws is breaking the “glass ceiling” which prevents women from advancing into top corporate positions. In this paper, we evaluate the Italian law of 2011, which installed a step-wise increase in gender quota that remain effective for three consecutive board renewals of listed limited liability firms. We link firm-level information on board membership and board election dates with detailed employment and earnings records from the Social Security registers. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the gender quota regulation and variation in board renewals across firms, we evaluate the effect of the board gender composition on measures of gender diversity in top positions over a period of 4 years. While the reform substantially raised the female membership on corporate boards, we find no evidence of spillover effects on the representation of women in top executive or top earnings positions. Our results confirm the findings by Bertrand et al. (2019) who study the introduction of a gender quota for board members in Norway. Given that Italy is a much less egalitarian society than Norway, with a larger scope of establishing gender equality, our results confirm that board quota policies alone are ineffective in raising female representation in top corporate positions, at least in the short run. |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
日時 | April 22, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Maria Guadalupe (INSEAD) "More Women in Tech? Evidence from a Field Experiment addressing Social Identity" [paper] |
共催 | ミクロ経済学ワークショップ |
Abstract | This paper studies how social identity considerations interact with comparative advantage to determine whether women will attempt a career in technology. We implement two field experiments with potential applicants to a five-month software-coding program offered to low-income women in Peru and Mexico. When we counterbalance the male stereotype of a career in technology through role models, information on returns and access to a female network application rates double and self-selection patterns change, suggesting that identity considerations are a strong deterrent for women to attempt a career in technology, in particular for some high-cognitive skill women who would benefit from it. |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
日時 | The 3rd CREPE Conference on Program Evaluation April 26, 2019 (Friday)13:00-18:20 ※日時と場所に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスホール in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
Program | Please click here for the PDF file of the program.
1:00 pm to 2:20 pm Key Note Speech 1 2:20 pm to 2:40 pm Break 2:40 pm to 4:40 pm Regular Session 5:00 pm to 6:20 pm Key Note Speech 2
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Organizer | Shinichiro Yamaguchi |
日時 |
The 3rd CREPE Conference on Program Evaluation
April 26, 2019 (Friday)13:00-18:20 ※日時と場所に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスホール in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
Progrm | Please click here for the PDF file of the program.
1:00 pm to 2:20 pm Key Note Speech 1 2:20 pm to 2:40 pm Break 2:40 pm to 4:40 pm Regular Session 5:00 pm to 6:20 pm Key Note Speech 2
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Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
日時 | May 13, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Ayumu Ken Kikkawa (University of British Columbia) "The Impact of NAFTA on Prices and Competition: Evidence from Mexican Manufacturing Plants" [paper] |
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Abstract | This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants' prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices sepa- rately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were aected by reductions in Mexican output taris, intermediate input taris, and U.S. taris. We nd that declines in these taris led to signicant reductions in the marginal costs of Mexican products. However, prices of exported goods slightly increased as ex- porters increased their markups in response to declines in U.S. taris. |
Organizer | Taiji Furusawa |
日時 | May 20, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map] |
報告 | Matilde Bombardini(University of British Columbia) “Hall of Mirrors: Corporate Philanthropy and Strategic Advocacy”[paper] |
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Abstract | Politicians and regulators rely on feedback from the public when setting policies. For-profit corporations and non-profit entities are active in this process and are arguably expectedto provide independent viewpoints. Policymakers (and the public at large), however, maybe unaware of the financial ties between some firms and non-profits – ties that are legaland tax-exempt, but difficult to trace. We identify these ties using IRS forms submitted bythe charitable arms of large U.S. corporations, which list all grants awarded to non-profits.We document three patterns in a comprehensive sample of public commentary made byfirms and non-profits within U.S. federal rulemaking between 2003 and 2015. First, we showthat, shortly after a firm donates to a non-profit, the grantee is more likely to comment onrules for which the firm has also provided a comment. Second, when a firm comments on arule, the comments by non-profits that recently received grants from the firm’s foundationare systematically closer in content similarity to the firm’s own comments than to thosesubmitted by other non-profits commenting on that rule. Comments by non-profits thatrecently received grants are also not opposing in terms of sentiment of their content. Third,when a firm comments on a new rule, the discussion of the final rule is more similar to thefirm’s comments when the firm’s recent grantees also comment on that rule. These patterns,taken together, suggest that corporations strategically deploy charitable grants to inducenon-profit grantees to make comments that favor their benefactors, and that this translatesinto regulatory discussion that is closer to the firm’s own comments. |
Organizer | Drew Griffen |
日時 |
TWID/JADE Workshop on Education and Skills
May 23, 2019 (Thursday) 15:00-17:30 |
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共催 | Aya |
Abstract | 15:00 - 15:40 Yukichi Mano (Hitotsubashi University)
Vietnam’s strong performance on the 2012 and 2015 PISA assessments has led to interest in what explains the strong academic performance of Vietnamese students. Analysis of the PISA data has not shed much light on this issue. This paper analyses a much richer data set, the Young Lives data for Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam, to investigate the reasons for the strong academic performance of 15-year-olds in Vietnam. The (preliminary) analysis thus far indicates that the Young Lives data can “explain” about two thirds of the gap between Vietnamese and Ethiopian 15-year-olds, about half of the gap between Vietnamese and Indian 15-year-olds, and about 40% of the gap between Vietnamese and Peruvian 15-year-olds. |
Organizer | Aya Suzuki, Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | June 14, 2019 2021 (Monday) 11:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム |
報告 | John Kagel (The Ohio State University) Infinitely Repeated Prisoner Dilemma Games: Comparing Teams with Individuals* with David Cooper(Florida State University) [paper] |
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Abstract | Teams are less cooperative than individuals in infinitely repeated PD games to begin with, but are more cooperative with experience. Strategies from team discussions are similar to maximum likelihood estimates at an aggregate level. However, discussions identify strategies that are substantially more complicated than standard strategies. Around 65% of teams use Always Defect to begin with, primarily out of safety concerns as well as a failure even consider the benefits of cooperating. Stage 1 cooperation rates are the same, or higher, in a comparable set of finitely repeated games, for both super-game 1 and the last common super-game. |
Organizer | Hidehiko Ichimura |
日時 | June 24, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Michela Tincani (University College London) "Rank Incentives, Misperceptions and the Design of Education Policy" |
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Abstract | In this paper, we combine merged administrative and novel survey data that we collected in the context of a randomized national policy with structural econometric modelling to study how agents respond to rank incentives, and to analyze the design of such incentives. By combining a randomized experiment with structural modelling we are able to cleanly identify policy impacts and key model parameters, and use model simulations to provide evidence on the mechanisms driving policy impacts. |
Organizer | ShintaroYamaguchi |
日時 | July 1, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Mitsukuni Nishida (Johns Hopkins University) "Are Mergers Beneficial for Firms? Evaluating Intangible Factors behind a Slowdown after a Financial Integration" |
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Abstract | Although the profitability of firms drives the desire to merge, nearly half of all mergers are considered failures. We analyze whether a past merger made merging firms more or less profitable, and through what channels did the merger affect profitability. We examine the effects of mergers on revenues, costs, and intangible assets (e.g., corporate culture, managerial talent, and organizational learning/forgetting) with limited data. The model relies on publicly available information on sales and store count of the convenience-store chains in 47 geographical markets in Japan, before and after an actual merger event. Our descriptive analysis documents that the merging firms experienced a slowdown in sales performance and the magnitude of the slowdown differs across geographic markets. To examine the effect of the merger on intangible, we estimate a dynamic model of retail expansion by modeling intangible assets as serially correlated unobservables in economic profits that evolve both endogenously and stochastically. The estimates reveal these intangible factors declined following the merger, and such decay is associated with the distance from the parent company's headquarters. |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
日時 | July 8, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Mitsukuni Nishida (Johns Hopkins University) "Are Mergers Beneficial for Firms? Evaluating Intangible Factors behind a Slowdown after a Financial Integration" |
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Abstract | The underutilized housing stock is a problem caused by the mismatch between housing stock and demand. Two forms of mismatch are vacant homes and empty nests. Vacant homes reflect a thin second-hand housing market whereas empty nests are associated with low mobility. This study sheds light on the cause of empty nests by focusing on bequest motives and the inheritance tax. By using Japanese household panel data, we first explore how the characteristics of household and housing are associated with empty nests, bequest motives, mobility, and renovation decisions. By the two-stage estimation of the bequest and mobility/renovation equations, we find that the inheritance tax exemption exacerbates the empty nest problem by decreasing household mobility and renovation through greater bequest motives. Bequest motives are also positively impacted by a coresident male child, financial wealth, and a self-employment status. Mobility decreases by age but increases by house size. In contrast, renovation decreases by retirement but increases by financial wealth, a self-employment status, and if a house is constructed under new earthquake-resistance standards. |
Organizer | Tsutomu Watanabe |
日時 | July 22, 2019 (Monday) 11:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | 【UTIPE Empirical Master's Thesis Presentation】 Xinwei Dong "The effect of subsequent birth interval on first children's height" |
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日時 | July 29, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Yoshito Takasaki (The University of Tokyo) |
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Abstract | This paper reports a randomized control trial on vocational training for persons with disabilities (PWDs). The program seeks to promote skilled work in mechanics and service for persons with limb amputation or paralysis in heavily mined areas of rural Cambodia. The program is small scale but intensive, involving long stay at the training center, up to one year. Eligible PWDs were randomly recruited and only recruited PWDs could participate in the program, if they wished (one-sided noncompliance). I examine economic, psychological, and social impacts of the training. On one hand, the training greatly increased employment (salary employment, not family enterprise) and earnings. Moreover, this led to employment among nondisabled household members (i.e., positive economic intrahousehold spillover). On the other hand, the training rather increased people’s discrimination against disabilities, which led to an increase in PWDs’ stigma of disability (i.e., negative psychological intergroup spillover). This unintended consequence was not caused by PWDs’ economic inclusion (e.g., envy), but by their negative interactions with nondisabled people who were not familiarity with disabilities in the community. I address potential threats to identification of these psychological externalities: perception bias in discrimination experienced by PWDs and psychological intragroup spillover among PWDs. |
Organizer | Andrew Griffen |
日時 | October 7, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Eric Zou (University of Oregon) |
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Abstract | Intermittent monitoring of environmental standards may induce strategic increases in polluting activities during unmonitored times. This paper documents local strategic responses to a cyclical, once-every-sixday air quality monitoring schedule under the federal Clean Air Act. Using satellite data of monitored areas, I show that air quality is significantly worse on unmonitored days. Correspondingly, cities’ use of air quality warnings increases on monitored days, which suggests local governments’ role in coordinating emission reductions. Higher levels of pollution on unmonitored days lead to measurable changes in outcomes, including lower school test scores and elevated crime. |
Organizer | Andrew Griffen |
日時 | October 8, 2019 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | 内藤久裕 (Hisahiro Naito) (University of Tsukuba) |
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Abstract | |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | October 9, 2019 (Wednesday) 10:30-12:00 ※日時、会場に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室 |
報告 | 五反田紘志 (Hiroshi Gotanda) (UCLA) |
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Abstract | Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, the eligibility for Medicaid?-public health insurance for low-income Americans?-was expanded to people earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level in the U.S. Evidence to date shows that the introduction of the ACA led to a significant decline in the number of uninsured patients. However, it remains unclear as to whether the ACA Medicaid expansions were associated with improved financial risk protection among low-income families at the national level. Using the U.S. nationally representative sample of low-income families in the U.S., we found that the ACA Medicaid expansions were associated with a lower out-of-pocket spending and a lower likelihood of catastrophic financial burden in the third year of the implementation. These findings suggest that the ACA achieved one of its primary goals to reduce financial strain due to medical bills among low-income families at the national level. |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | October 15, 2019 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Alistair Munro (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) |
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Abstract | |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | October 21, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 |
山内 太 (Futoshi Yamauchi) (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)) Asymmetric Information on Non-cognitive Skills in the Indian Labor Market: An Experiment using an Online Job Portal |
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Abstract |
This paper examines the impact of non-cognitive (socio-emotional) skills on job market outcomes using a randomized control trial implemented in an online job portal in India. Job seekers who registered in the portal were asked to take a Big Five personality test and, for a random sub-sample of the test takers, the results were displayed to potential employers. Outcomes are measured by whether a potential employer unlocks a seeker by opening his/her application and background information. The results show that the treatment group for whom test results were shown generally enjoyed a higher probability of unlock. That is, employers are more interested in those for whom they can see personality test results. Such a relationship was not detected in the pre-test period. The effect was more significant among female, more educated and/or more experienced applicants. We also found a significant impact among cooperative, organized, realistic, calm, and/or outgoing applicants, which seems to indicate employers’ preferences. |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | October 28, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 |
Robert A. Miller (Carnegie Mellon University) "Innovation and Diffusion of Medical Treatment"[paper] |
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Abstract |
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model of demand for a multiattribute product. The demand side equilibrium supports a product spectrum, the characteristics of which evolve over time in response to supply innovations induced by the composition and extent of aggregate demand. The direction and speed of innovation is inefficient because individuals create an externality by not accounting for their influence on the discovery process. We apply the model to drugs invented to combat the HIV epidemic, during which frequent, incremental innovations in medication were punctuated by sporadic breakthroughs. In this application products differ in their efficacy and their propensity to cause side effects. Our biennial data on four American cities track a replenished panel of individuals for over twenty years, from when drugs were not only ineffective but also created debilitating side effects, to when the market matured. We find that the externalities are quantitatively important and that even a temporary subsidy would have improved average social welfare and been more equitable. |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | November 4, 2019 (Monday, Substitute Holiday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 |
Shaoda Wang (University of Chicago) "The Environmental and Economic Consequences of Internalizing Border Spillovers." |
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Organizer | Andrew Griffen |
日時 | November 5, 2019 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | 関恵里香 (Erika Seki) (Osaka University) Coordination and free-riding problems in blood donation (joint with Ai Takeuchi) |
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Abstract | |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | November 11, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | David Neumark (University of California, Irvine) |
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Abstract | Age discrimination in hiring can pose a significant barrier to extending the work lives of older individuals, many of whom take “bridge” jobs before complete retirement. We study the relationships between ageist stereotypes ? as reflected in the language used in job ads ? and age discrimination in hiring, exploiting the text of 11,420 job ads and differences in callbacks to older and younger job applicants from a previous resume (correspondence study) field experiment (Neumark, Burn, and Button, 2019). We use language processing software to scrape the text of these ads and identify language that conveys or relates to age stereotypes. We test whether employers who used ageist language in their ads or have job requirements that relate to age stereotypes are less likely to call back older job applicants. This evidence allows us to directly identify, in a field setting, ageist stereotypes that underlie age discrimination in hiring.**We find evidence that language related to stereotypes of older workers sometimes predicts discrimination against older workers. For men, there is a wide range of stereotypes that predict discrimination. Among women, we primarily find evidence that phrases related to communication skills and technology predict discrimination. |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
日時 | November 18, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 |
Dean Hyslop (Motu) "Female Earnings Inequality: The Changing Role of Family Characteristics on the Extensive and Intensive Margins (joint with David Card)" [paper] |
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Abstract | Although women make up nearly half the U.S. workforce, most studies of earnings inequality focus on men. This is at least in part because of the complexity of modeling both the decision to work (i.e., the extensive margin) and the level of earnings conditional on work (the intensive margin). In this paper we document a series of descriptive facts about female earnings inequality using data for three cohorts in the PSID. We show that inequality in annual earnings of women fell sharply between the late 1960s and the mid-1990s, with a particularly large decline in the extensive margin component. We then fit earnings-generating models that incorporate both intensive- and extensive-margin dynamics to data for the three cohorts. Our models suggest that over 80% of the decline in female earnings inequality can be attributed to a weakening of the link between family-based factors (including the number of children of different ages and the presence and incomes of partners) and the intensive and extensive margins of earnings determination. |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
日時 | November 26, 2019 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時に注意
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | 手島健介 (Kensuke Teshima) (Hitotsubashi University) |
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Abstract | This study examines the effect of tightening the U.S. environmental standard on lead in 2009 on the relocation of battery recycling to Mexico and on health outcomes in Mexico. In the U.S., airborne lead dropped sharply near plants affected by the regulation, most of which were battery-recycling plants. Exports of used batteries to Mexico rose markedly. In Mexico, birth outcomes deteriorated within two miles of battery-recycling plants, relative to areas slightly further away. These findings demonstrate that environmental regulation in developed countries can induce relocation of pollution-intensive production to developing countries with weaker regulation and cause negative health spillover effects. |
Organizer | Yoshito Takasaki |
日時 | December 9, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Daisuke Adachi (Yale University) |
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Abstract | We study the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on the labor share of income distribution in the source country. We propose a general equilibrium model that features heterogeneous and non-parametric production function with the employment of foreign factors with augmentation. First-order approximation points out that the differences in the factor demand elasticities are key parameters for the implication to the labor share. To identify them, we develop a method of moment estimator that leverages foreign factor augmentation shocks. We then apply the method to a unique natural experiment, the 2011 Thailand Floods and the impact on Japanese multinational firms. We employ a uniquely combined Japanese firm- and plantlevel datasets. The estimate indicates that the foreign factor augmentation increased capital demand in Japan more than labor demand, which suggests that the foreign factor augmentation contributes to a reduction in the labor share in Japan. Our quantitative exercise reveals that between 1995 and 2007, the factor augmentation in foreign countries explains 59 percent of the decrease in the labor share. |
Organizer | Drew Griffen |
日時 | December 11, 2019 (Wednesday) 10:30-12:00 ※日時、会場に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室 |
報告 | Kala Krishna (Pennsylvania State University) |
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Abstract | Using high quality administrative data on Greece we show that class size has a hump shaped effect on achievement. We do so both nonparametrically and parametrically, while controlling for potential endogeneity and allowing for quantile effects. We then embed our estimates for this relationship in a dynamic structural model with costs of hiring and firing. We argue that the linear specification form used in past work may be why it found mixed results. Our work suggests that while discrete reductions in class size may have mixed effects, discrete increases are likely to have very negative effects while marginal changes in class size would have small negative effects. We find optimal class sizes around 27 in the absence of adjustment costs and achievement maximizing ones around 15, and ring costs much larger than hiring costs consistent with the presence of unions. Despite this, reducing ring costs actually reduces achievement. Reducing hiring costs raises achievement and reduces class size. We show that class size caps are costly, and more so for small schools, even when set at levels well above average. |
Organizer | Konstantin Kucheryavyy |
日時 | December 23, 2019 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | David Schonholzer (Stockholm University) |
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Abstract | We offer new evidence on the effects and efficiency of school facility investment on student and neighborhood outcomes, linking data on new facility openings to administrative student and real estate records in Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD). Since 1997, LAUSD has built and renovated hundreds of schools as a part of the largest public school construction program in US history. Using an event study design that exploits quasi-random variation in the timing of new facilities and a residential assignment instrument, we find strong positive impacts on math, English, and attendance. Effects are not driven by changes in class size, peers, teachers, or principals, but rather by increased facility quality and, to a lesser extent, reductions in overcrowding. House prices increase by 6% in neighborhoods that receive new schools. Using a residential choice model, we then estimate that a dollar spent on school facilities raises the sum of housing values and adult earnings by 1.62 dollars, with only 22% of this valuation due to academic benefits of the program. The housing market valuation of academic benefits captures most but not all of the implied future earnings gains. |
Organizer | Eric Weese |
日時 | January 14, 2020 (Tuesday) 10:25-12:10 ※日時、会場に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Stacey Chen (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies ) |
共催 | |
Abstract | |
Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
日時 | January 10, 2020 (Friday) 15:30-17:00 ※日時、会場に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室 |
報告 | Shiko Maruyama (University of Technology Sydney) |
共催 | ※共催: 東京労働経済学研究会 政策評価教育研究センター(CREPE), ミクロ経済学ワークショップ |
Abstract | Voter turnout in mature democracies tends to range from around 50-70%. Low, for something as critical as electing policymakers, but much higher than basic economic theory would predict. Even in Australia, where voting is compulsory, there are still around 5-6% of voters who submit an informal vote, which does not count towards the total. We make use of a natural experiment, based on exogenous changes in electorate boundaries, to identify what factors influence the number of wasted votes. In advance from the existing literature, we test a range of potential contributing factors together, in a single model, and with causal interpretation. We find that factors that feature in the traditional theory on voter decisions, competitiveness and number of other voters, do not affect the rate of informal voting. Instead, we find that more candidates on the ballot results in higher levels of informal voting. This effect is present regardless of the level of education, which indicates that it is likely to be associated with a decision by the voter to abstain rather than an error. We conclude that making the way voters can express their preferences as simple as possible would be beneficial for reducing wasted votes. |
Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
※ 2020年1月 修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※ 1.下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい (Please note that the following schedule might be changed)。 2.発表は基本的に日本語で行われます (Presentations are basically in Japanese)。 |
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発表者の方へ |
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日時 | January 20, 2020 (Monday) 9:00-14:30 |
場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 |
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共催 | ※共催: 東京労働経済学研究会 政策評価教育研究センター(CREPE), ミクロ経済学ワークショップ |
Organizer | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
日時 | January 31, 2020 (Friday) 16:50-18:35 ※日時に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | 奥井亮(Ryo Okui) (Seoul National University) |
共催 | |
Abstract | This paper proposes an estimation method for a change in group membership structure and/or the values of coefficients. We consider linear panel data models with a grouped pattern of heterogeneity. In this context, a structural break can arise when the group membership structure and/or the value of one or more coefficients change during the sample period. Considering both possibilities is important since failure to account for a change in the group membership structure may result in detecting a spurious struc- tural break in the values of the coefficients. We propose a least squares estimator for such models that estimates the break point, group membership structure, and coefficients simultaneously. The estimator is consistent under a mild condition on the relative mag- nitude of the cross sectional sample size and the length of time series. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimator is identical to that under known break point and known group membership structure. Monte Carlo simulations yield encouraging results. An empirical example illustrates use of the approach and associated inference. |
Organizer | Katumi Shimotsu |
日時 | February 17, 2020 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 *Date Changed |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室 |
報告 | Lu Zhang (CPB Netherlands) "Do house prices matter for household consumption? Evidence from Dutch administrative data" [paper] |
共催 | 東京大学社会科学研究所, ミクロ経済学ワークショップ |
Abstract | To what extent do large drops in house prices drive household consumption? Using a large panel of Dutch households over the period 2007 to 2014, when house price dropped 27%, we find a significantly positive relationship between house prices and household (durable) consumption. A 10% change in home values leads to a 0.7% change in household consumption for homeowners, but a negligible response for renters. Young and middle-aged homeowners have larger consumption sensitivities to house prices than old households. Delving into the underlying channels, a pure wealth effect can explain part of the consumption sensitivity to house prices. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that house prices affect consumption through the borrowing collateral (and precautionary saving) channel. |
Organizer | Ayako Kondo |
日時 | February 20, 2020 (Thursday) 10:30-12:00 ※日時、会場に注意 |
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 第3セミナー室 |
報告 | 大西 健 (Ken Onishi) (Federal Reserve Board) |
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Abstract | We empirically study the effects of mergers on quality, product space positions, and prices in the U.S. banking industry. We find that in the short-run, bank mergers increase market concentration, encourage bank entry, usher changes to branch networks (observed quality and position in the product space), and initiate interest rate (price) competition between the merged entity and its closest rivals. However, we find that in the long-run the merged entity reverts to pre-merger interest rates and closes branches, horizontally repositioning, but destroying some of the initial post-merger gains in quality, albeit maintaining a branch network larger than the acquirer's or target'spre-merger networks. In the long-run, the closest rival continues to raise deposit interest rates, while opening branches to occupythe product space vacated by the merged entity. Our results suggest that it is important to consider long-run dynamics when reviewing merger proposals, and to consider product provisions and quality in addition to prices when assessing the impact of mergers on consumers. |
Organizer | Naoki Wakamori |
日時 | February 27, 2020 (Thursday)16:30-18:00 ※日時、会場に注意
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場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム |
報告 | Chritian Dustmann (University College London and The Australian National University) |
共催 | |
Abstract | |
Organizer | Daiji Kawaguchi |
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