Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy,
international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced
dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the
demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes
arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the
most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short
haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971
to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze
the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic
determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and
political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.
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